Monthly Newsletter – September 2019: Identifying Dual Markets and the Opportunities They Provide

2019 has been a year where we have continued to gain more balance in the real estate market. Inventory levels have increased, days on market are longer, negotiations have opened up, and the constricted multiple-offer market is no longer the norm. It has been comforting to see price appreciation temper and move towards more normal, historical levels. Today’s market certainly seems more sustainable and has provided some great opportunities for both buyers and sellers, especially for those that are both.

Recently, I did an analysis on new phenomenon that has presented itself. This is the presence of a dual market. A dual market is when you have different market conditions within the same overarching real estate market. This duality presents amazing opportunities for sellers who are also buyers, depending on where they want to go.

Two dual markets that I have discovered are the move-up market and the move-out market. The move-up market is when you sell the home you are in and move up to an upgraded home in a higher price point. For example, in Edmonds, WA there are many people who are interested in selling their current home and upgrading to a view home. When I analyzed the statistics in both sections of the Edmonds market it appears that a dual market is presenting itself.

In August, all homes in Edmonds under $1M had an absorption rate of 88% while all homes over a $1M, 16%. Months of inventory based on pending sales under $1M was only one month of available inventory, and over $1M, six months! That is the difference of a seller’s market under $1M to a balanced market teetering on a buyer’s market over $1M. After many solid years of strong appreciation, folks that are looking to cash out the equity on their current home and move it into a view home have the opportunity to move their investment with a sizable down payment and upgrade to the lifestyle they have been dreaming about.

Let’s also not forget to mention today’s interest rates. They are a point lower than they were a year ago, affording buyer’s 10% more buying power. For example, a one-point lower rate on a home priced at $1.2M will now afford a buyer the purchase of a home at $1.32M with the same monthly payment. Couple that with price appreciation tempering and you have a move-up market heyday in the making!

The other dual market that is exciting to witness is the move-out market. This is prevalent for the Baby Boomers looking to cash out on the home that they enjoyed during their working years, typically near job centers, and relocate to an outlying area to retire. The chart below illustrates the market conditions and prices in the urban markets and compares them to the market conditions in some of the most popular retirement destinations in the state, such as Sequim, Island County, Okanogan County, and Chelan County.  Note, if there is a destination that is not listed and you would like the statistics, please reach out. I have access to many markets across the state and beyond.  Also, I am a part of an agent network that I can access to put you in touch with capable experts across or out of the state to help educate and serve your real estate needs with these markets.

 

The previous, hard-core seller’s market we experienced was quite the ride and built up some pretty major equity gains for homeowners across the board. It was exciting, but these more normal conditions are more pliable and comfortable. They allow for moves that don’t require physically moving twice, high price escalations, or constantly getting beat out by other buyers to succeed. Overall, there is just more breathing room. Are there homes that get multiple offers, yes! Homes that are expertly brought to market with thoughtful pricing and dialed-in preparation are having fun with their results. Opportunities abound for both buyers and sellers, and in a market with more options it is important to align with an agent that can help navigate all the choices.

If you are curious about the opportunities these dual markets present, please reach out. It is my goal to help keep my clients educated and empowered to make strong decisions. This is especially rewarding when it leads to their next chapter in life, which are amazing transitions to be a part of. Stay tuned for next month’s newsletter, when I will feature opportunities in the condominium market and how this duality is starting to take shape.

 

 

 

Nothing feels more like fall than pumpkin picking, hay rides and corn mazes. Get your latte in hand and head out to any one of these great, local farms to have some harvest fun and find that perfect jack-o-lantern to light up your porch.

 

 

 

We all know that nothing lasts forever, but when everything is working fine it is easy to forget that all of the systems and appliances in your home have a finite lifespan. Keep this information in mind, whether you are buying or selling a home, budgeting for improvements, or deciding between repairing and replacing.

 

Here’s a brief look at some of the components of your home and their average lifespans (courtesy of the National Association of Home Builders)

 

ROOFING, SIDING, WINDOWS & DECKS. You can expect slate or tile roofs to last around 50 years, wood shingles 25-30, metal will get you about 25 years, while asphalts typically last about 20 years. The lifespan for siding can vary quite a bit. Brick will last 100 years or more, aluminum about 80 years and stucco will probably last you 25 years. Wood siding can last anywhere from 10 to 100 years depending on the climate you live in and how it is maintained. Both aluminum and vinyl windows will last 15 to 20 years, while unclad wood windows can have a life of 30 years or more. Cedar decks will average 15-25 years as long as they are properly treated and cleaned, and a high quality composite deck will last 30 years with minimal maintenance.

 

FLOORING. The natural flooring materials such as wood, marble, slate or granite will all last 100 years or more, while tile has an average life of 70-100 years. Vinyl can last up to 50 years, while laminate and linoleum will get you up to 25 years. Expect your carpet to last 8-10 years, depending on use.

 

KITCHEN & BATH. Laminate countertops can have a life of 20 years or more, but it will vary depending on use. Wood, tile and stone should last a lifetime, and cultured marble will typically see a lifespan of 20 years. You can expect your stainless steel sink to last you about 30 years, while an enamel-coated sink will give you five to 10 years. Slate, granite, soapstone and copper will be around for 100 years or more. Bathroom faucets should give you about 20 years, and toilets will average a 50-year lifespan, although some of the parts will need replacing.

 

APPLIANCES. The lifespan of appliances will vary widely depending on the appliance, the brand, model, and use. Use these average lifespan numbers as a rough guide for when it may make more sense to replace rather than repair. Gas ranges tend to have the longest lifespan of your major appliances, giving around 15 years of use. Electric ranges on the other hand, are closer to 13 years, which is also the expected lifespan for standard refrigerators and clothes dryers. Your garbage disposal should give you about 10 years of use, while the dishwasher and microwave will be around nine years. You can expect your electric furnace to last about 15 years, 18 for gas and 20 for oil-burning. Central air systems will live 10 to 15 years on average.

 

Check out the NAHB website for more information.

Posted on October 2, 2019 at 9:04 pm
Andrea Wetzel | Category: Newsletter

Monthly Newsletter – August 2019: Don’t Miss the Boat on Current Interest Rates

Most recently, buyers have enjoyed more selection in the marketplace which has led to more open negotiations versus bidding wars. This is illustrated by an increase in average Days on Market and a decrease in the average Sold-to-List Price Ratios complete-year over year (the last 12 months over the previous 12 months). In King County, the average Days on Market increased from 22 days to 36 days complete-year over year, and the Sold-to-List Price Ratio decreased from 101% to 98%. In Snohomish County, the average Days on Market increased from 25 to 35 days complete-year over year, and the Sold-to-List Price Ratio decreased from 100% to 98%.

Buyers have had more selection to choose from which has tempered price growth complete-year over year. Median price remains even in King County and up 3% in Snohomish County. Multiple offers are not as commonplace as they were, but terms such as inspection contingencies and home sale contingencies are doable in some areas and price ranges. This balancing out has created some more normal terms for buyers, while sellers are getting close to full price on average and cashing out on the above-average appreciation we enjoyed from 2012 to 2018.

It is still a seller’s market, yet we are heading towards balance. The months of available inventory based on pending sales (the amount of time it would take to sell out of homes if no new homes came to market) currently sits at 1.7 months in King County and 1.5 months in Snohomish County. Zero to 3 months is a seller’s market, 3-6 months a balanced market, and 6+ months a buyer’s market. In 2017 to early 2018, inventory levels were commonly under one month, which was a very volatile and constricted environment within which to purchase a home. The direction towards balance is welcome and providing much more comfort when making a move.

The inventory levels are an amazingly beneficial phenomenon due to the fact that buyers are simultaneously enjoying the lowest interest rates we’ve had since 2016! Currently, the 30-year mortgage rate is hovering around 3.6% and the 15-year around 3.07% according to Freddie Mac. Not only are rates the lowest we’ve seen in 3 years, but they are an entire point lower than they were a in Q4 of 2018. When rates crested 4.5% last year, we saw a marked reduction in pending sales. This highlights the recent opportunities that have come alive for buyers to secure such low debt service and for sellers to have a larger audience. When rates rise, folks reassess and sometimes step aside, which is why this current opportunity should be taken advantage of.

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This is meaningful because the rule of thumb is that for every one-point decrease in interest rate, a buyer gains ten percent in purchase power. For example, if a buyer is shopping for a $500,000 home and the rate decreases by a point during their search, they can up their price ceiling to $550,000 and keep the same monthly payment. This is huge, especially in the wake of intense price growth over the last 6-7 years, which priced many buyers out of the market. Buyers that took a break and stepped to the sidelines in the past may want to consider their opportunities now. This is the most favorable buyer environment (inside of a seller’s market) we’ve seen in some time!

This recent decrease in rate is helping the move-up market come alive. What is great about this, is that it opens up inventory for the first-time buyer and helps complete the market cycle. First-time buyers are abundant right now as the Millennial generation is gaining in age and making big life transitions such as buying real estate. According to Nerd Wallet, 49% of all Millennials have a home purchase in their 5-year plan. The rates are also providing very low debt service for investors, second-home buyers, and down-size buyers headed toward retirement.

Will these rates last forever? Simply put, no! According to Freddie Mac, rates should increase closer to the 4’s as we round out 2019 and head into 2020. While still staying well below the 30-year average of 6.85%, increases are increases, and securing today’s rate could be hugely beneficial from a cost-saving perspective. Just like the 1980’s when folks were securing mortgages at 18%, the people that lock down on a rate from today will be telling these stories to their grandchildren. Note the 30-year average – it is reasonable to think that higher rates must be in our future at some point.

So what does this mean for you? If you have considered making a move, or even your first purchase, today’s rates are a huge advantage in helping make a move more affordable. If you are a seller, bear in mind that today’s interest rate market is creating strong buyer demand, providing a healthy buyer pool for your home. As a homeowner who has no intention to make a move, now might be the time to consider a refinance. What is so exciting about these refinances, is that it is not only possible to reduce your monthly payment, but also your term, depending on which rate you would be coming down from.

If you would like additional information on how today’s interest rates pertain to your housing goals, please contact me. I would be happy to educate you on homes that are available, do a market analysis on your current home, and/or put you in touch with a reputable mortgage professional to help you crunch numbers. Real estate success is rooted in being accurately informed, and it is my goal to help empower you to make sound decisions for you and your family.

 

 

 

I am pleased to present the second-quarter 2019 edition of the Gardner Report, which provides insights into select counties of the Western Washington housing market. This analysis is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope that this information will assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Click to view the full report

 

 

 

Summer is quickly coming to a close, and it’s time to think about prepping your yard for fall.  Here are a few quick tips to get you started, and a full article here.

Fertilizing

All summer long, plants and grass are using up nutrients in the soil. After months of growing, your soil’s reserves become depleted, which is why a fall fertilizer is great to restore nutrients and give your grass, shrubs, and perennials a boost to help them make it through winter. It is recommended to fertilize once every season.

 

Stop Pruning and Watering

Late summer and fall might seem like a good time to prune dead flowers and branches, but several experts recommend waiting until spring to prune anything. Pruning stimulates new growth, but with the frost coming, chances are this new growth won’t survive. Pruning also interferes with the plant when it is going dormant.

In late September, you should also stop watering your plants to help them go dormant as well.

>>Keep reading

Posted on September 5, 2019 at 10:40 pm
Andrea Wetzel | Category: Newsletter

Monthly Newsletter – July 2019

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Price appreciation has been a hot topic for some time, but over the last year, prices have started to balance out and it takes some explaining. As you can see from the map above provided by the National Association of Realtors, price appreciation over the long haul has been robust. The map above points out price appreciation since 2005, which was prior to the economic downturn. This demonstrates that if a homeowner was able to retain their home through the downturn of 2007-2012, that they came out on the other side well-positioned. Real estate is typically a long game, and that is one of the key points we will cover here.

First, let’s review price growth after the down turn. Since 2014, price appreciation has been out of the ordinary! The average (normal) price appreciation is 3-4% year-over-year. For clarity, “year-over-year” is defined by the last 12 months averaged over the previous 12 months. This is a larger data pull and tells a deeper story than just taking one month and comparing it over that same month the year prior like the media typically does.

Over these last five years, we have seen double-digit year-over-year appreciation, specifically from 2015-2018. In fact, 2018 started out with 14% price gains over 2017. This was due to rapid job growth, tight inventory, and low interest rates. It was the perfect storm to rapidly drive up prices. In the second half of 2018, interest rates started to rise, inventory had huge gains, and affordability became an increasing issue. This stalled out demand and prices came off their spring peak. The second half of 2018 brought on a price correction and started to lead a path toward more normal appreciation levels.

In the beginning of 2019, we saw year-over-year price gains average from 8-9%. As we finished out the second quarter of 2019, the year-over-year price growth continued to balance out toward typical, historical levels. We are at a place in the year-over-year data where the crazed price appreciation is no longer within 12 months, and we are tracking from the correction that happened in the second half of 2018, reflective of more normal inventory levels.

The majority of the large gains in 2018 happened in the first half of the year. Since May of 2018, inventory has grown, meaning we have seen more homes come to market, providing buyers more selection which tempers price growth. This has evened out price growth to more sustainable levels and aided in affordability. Coupled with the recent drop in interest rate (.75% since November 2018) the market has provided more ease for buyers to make purchases and for buyers that are sellers to make transitions without having to move twice. It is still a seller’s market with inventory levels under 3-months, but we are starting to move toward more balance. This is a good thing!

What does all of this mean?  Quite a bit, but I’ll touch on some key points.

  • Many homeowners are in very favorable equity positions, especially those who bought prior to 2016 (back to that long-game point).
  • The days of owning your home for 1-3 years and turning a profit with a quick sale are a blip in history from 2015-2017.
  • Buyers simply have more selection, so the homes that are in good condition, show-ready, and priced appropriately are seeing fantastic results such as quick market times, favorable terms, and full-price or sometimes over-list-price offers.
  • Overpricing is becoming more common as home sellers wrap their heads around the new normal of price appreciation. Attention to market trajectory and aligning with a trusted professional can help avoid this pitfall.
  • The more affordable areas have seen higher gains recently as the core areas balance out from hitting affordability ceilings.
  • Historically low interest rates (lowest in three years!) continue to drive demand and should be as important to watch for a seller as they are for a buyer.

Below are some national price appreciation predictions from CoreLogic and various economists. It is predicted that we will continue to have price appreciation, but for it to be more subtle. The fear of equity loss on a national level from these experts is minimal. It is understandable that when price gains become more subtle that it may seem like the sky is falling, but it is important to keep the long game in perspective.

Real estate is a complicated investment to navigate, but one that can provide amazing opportunity. It also relates to big life choices; whoever said moving was easy? That is why aligning with a trusted professional is key to help make these life-changing transitions. If you are curious about the value of your home in today’s market or have thought about a move or even a first-time purchase, please reach out. It is my mission to help keep my clients informed and empower strong, life-changing decisions.

 

We’re halfway through the Windermere Foundation’s 30-year anniversary and there’s no sign of donations slowing down. In the second quarter of this year, the Windermere Foundation collected $556,937, bringing our year-to-date total to $865,029, and our grand total to $38,871,157 raised since 1989. These donations are used to support non-profit organizations and programs that help low-income and homeless families throughout the Western U.S.

 

Every Windermere office has its own Windermere Foundation fund account from which we make donations to help those in need in our local communities. These funds come from each real estate transaction that we close, as well as individual donations from agents, staff, and the community.

Thank you for your support! Together, we are able to make a real difference for those in need in our local communities.

All of us at Windermere are very excited to kick-off our fourth season as the Official Real Estate Company of the Seattle Seahawks!

 

Once again, our #tacklehomelessness campaign is front-and-center, with the Windermere Foundation donating $100 for every Seahawks home-game defensive tackle to Mary’s Place, a Seattle-based non-profit organization that provides safe, inclusive shelter and services supporting women, children, and families on their journey out of homelessness. We are looking forward to raising even more money – and awareness – for this important cause.

 

Our partnership with the Seahawks and Mary’s Place fits perfectly with the mission of the Windermere Foundation which is to support low-income and homeless families in the communities where we have offices. Through the #tacklehomelessness campaign, we hope to be able to do even more.

Check out the Seahawks schedule here, the preseason is just a couple of weeks away!

Posted on August 12, 2019 at 5:21 pm
Andrea Wetzel | Category: Newsletter

Monthly Newsletter – June 2019

Changes are coming: The Washington State Legislature is changing the way in which real estate excise taxes (REET) are calculated. REET are different from your annual property taxes; they are the tax that a seller pays when they sell their home, based on the sale price.

Currently, the Washington State excise tax is 1.28 percent. Local municipalities add their excise tax on top of the state tax, with most cities in our area adding 0.50 percent, to total 1.78 percent. Effective January 1, 2020, Washington State will begin calculating real estate excise taxes based on a tier system. Below are examples of how this change will affect the different price points.

 

The majority of sellers will enjoy a slight savings once the new tax structure starts in 2020, however, sellers whose homes are worth $1.5M or more should pay close attention as the tiered system will cost them more in 2020. If you own a high-end home and have been considering downsizing, doing so inside of 2019 may be a winning strategy.

If you or someone you know is curious about the value of your home or you have considered a move, please reach out. It is my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On June 7th, my office spent our annual Community Service Day with the Snohomish Garden Club constructing trellises, weeding and staking beds and planting and labeling a half-acre of produce!

The Snohomish Garden Club will harvest this half-acre, which will yield close to 10,000 pounds of fresh produce to be donated to various food banks and senior centers in Snohomish County. The land for the garden is generously donated by the Bailey Family Farm.

For more information on how you can lend a hand, please visit: SnohomishGardenClub.com

Windermere’s Community Service Day was established in 1984 to offer agents and staff a chance to volunteer an entire workday to give back to the neighborhoods in which they live and work.

 

 The longer days and warmer weather means that your favorite movie is no longer relegated only to a dark stuffy room. Grab the folding chairs, blankets and popcorn, and check out a few of these fun outdoor movies. You’ll find classics like Ferris Bueller’s Day Off and The Princess Bride, as well as newer releases like Mary Poppins Returns and Spider Man: Into the Spider-Verse. Most of them are free, and many locations also offer fun, family-friendly activities before the movie starts.

Posted on July 15, 2019 at 1:37 pm
Andrea Wetzel | Category: Community Information, Newsletter

Monthly Newsletter – May 2019

The generational shift that is happening in our country right now is having a strong influence on demand for real estate. As the Millennials gain a stronger foothold into their adulthood, Generation X settles in with family, Boomers move towards retirement and the Silent Generation find themselves making moves for health reasons, the desire to match their homes to the time in their life is creating strong demand in the real estate market.

 

In the month of April, the absorption rate based on pending sales was 81% in north King County and 91% in south Snohomish County. Historically low interest rates are helping to fuel this demand. In fact, rates are over half a point lower than they were six months ago.  The low rates are enabling people to make moves with less debt service to satisfy their changing needs for housing based on their age and lifestyle. Below you can see a chart from the National Association of Realtors outlining this motivation.

Recently, the National Association of Realtors did a survey of home buyers to help understand the generational influence on real estate. From July 2017 to June 2018 they gathered data which outlined the top motivators for each age group. Let’s take a look at what caused these groups to make moves.


Young Millennials (1990-1998)
This group accounted for 11% of all home buyers and were predominantly first-time home buyers. Motivated by the desire to start building wealth through owning real estate and purchasing as close to work as possible, this group enjoyed small ramblers, townhomes and condos. This group used financing to obtain their purchases and used savings or gift funds to amass their down payment. A common misconception from this group is that they need a large down payment in order to purchase. This group utilized loan programs with smaller, single-digit down payments to help get their foot in the door of becoming a home owner and building wealth.

Older Millennials (1980-1989)
This group accounted for 26% of all home buyers, the largest group! They have become more established in their careers and are getting married and having children, which is creating the need for a larger home. They tend to gravitate toward larger homes and are willing to move a bit further away from work to obtain the larger square footage. This group is moving into the suburbs and considering school districts and commute times. Some were able to move equity from their first home to the next, creating a larger down payment;  others bought for the first time to avoid high rents.

Generation X (1965-1979)
This group accounted for 24% of all home buyers, the second largest group. They are motivated to upgrade to the largest square footage of all, and take a multi-generational approach to their housing. Many with aging children and/or parents, it is not uncommon for this group to consider having room for adult children or older parents. Still in prime earning years, proximity to work is very important.  Positive equity positions have helped this group make these transitions.

Younger Boomers (1955-1964)
This group accounted for 18% of all home buyers. Job change and desire to be closer to friends and family motivated this group. Positive equity growth enabled some of this group to have sizable down payments. Another interesting fact about this group is that one in four were a single female, some of which were first-time home buyers.  In some cases divorce and death lead individuals to still take on home ownership to build wealth and avoid high rents.

Older Boomers (1946-1955)
This group accounted for 14% of all home buyers. The ability to move equity from one home to the next was a huge influence for this group, and enabled them to find that “forever home” with large down payments and in some cases with “all cash”. The house with less maintenance, more upgrades, possibly further away from job centers, but still close to family and friends.  Single level living is of high priority for this group along with turn-key finishes.

Silent Generation (1925-1945)
This group accounted for 7% of all home buyers and often centered themselves in senior living choices. Smaller homes or condos with stair free access in communities close to family and health services are a priority for this group. Through years of equity growth many of these purchases are “all cash” or only with the need for a very small mortgage.

Life changes motivate real estate decisions.  Career changes, marriage, divorce, family size, retirement, and the desire to be close to family and friends are just some of the reasons people decide to make moves. Fortunately, today’s low interest rates and the ability to transfer equity from one property to another is having a positive effect on demand for real estate. The recent balancing of the market due to more inventory has also made it a bit easier for first-time home buyers to purchase a home.

If you’re curious about the market and how your goals, current lifestyle, and financial position measure up, please contact me. I can help you analyze your ability to match your home to your life. It is my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

We are collecting vegetable seeds and starts for the Martha Perry Garden, where volunteers grow thousands of pounds of fresh produce every year for local food banks.

My office will be spending a volunteer day in the garden for our annual Community Service Day in June. In addition to our labor, we will gift them all of the vegetable seeds and starts collected between now and then.

All seeds should be no more than a year old, although fresh seeds are preferred.

Wish List:

Basil, Beets, Cabbage, Carrots*, Cauliflower, Chard, Cucumbers, Green Beans, Herbs, Marigolds, Peppers, Radishes, Summer Squash, Snow Peas, Tomatoes, Winter Squash, Zucchini

*High Demand!

Starts of cucumbers, winter & summer squash, cole crops (cabbage, cauliflower, broccoli, kale, etc) are especially welcome

Thank you!!

Windermere Foundation Recognized at Puget Sound Business Journal Philanthropy Luncheon

The Windermere Foundation was recognized last week, along with 74 other generous companies, at the annual Puget Sound Business Journal’s Corporate Philanthropy luncheon. The Windermere Foundation moved up the list (and it’s a very impressive list, full of national and international companies!) from #22 to #17!

Check out WindermereFoundation.com for more info on our culture of giving back.

 

Posted on June 3, 2019 at 8:48 pm
Andrea Wetzel | Category: Newsletter

Monthly Newsletter – April 2019

I am pleased to present the first-quarter 2019 edition of the Gardner Report, which provides insights into select counties of the Western Washington housing market. This analysis is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope that this information will assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Click to view the full report

When you shop at a local Farmers Market, you’re buying outstanding freshness, quality and flavor. Knowing exactly where your food comes from and how it was grown provides peace of mind for your family. Plus, you’re supporting a sustainable regional food system that helps small family farms stay in business; protects land from development, and provides the community with fresh, healthy food. Find one near you!

 

 

We are collecting vegetable seeds and starts for the Martha Perry Garden, where volunteers grow thousands of pounds of fresh produce every year for local food banks.

My office will be spending a volunteer day in the garden for our annual Community Service Day in June. In addition to our labor, we will gift them all of the vegetable seeds and starts collected between now and then.

All seeds should be no more than a year old, although fresh seeds are preferred.
Wish List:

Basil, Beets, Cabbage, Carrots*, Cauliflower, Chard, Cucumbers, Green Beans, Herbs, Marigolds, Peppers, Radishes, Summer Squash, Snow Peas, Tomatoes, Winter Squash, Zucchini

*High Demand!

Starts of cucumbers, winter & summer squash, cole crops (cabbage, cauliflower, broccoli, kale, etc) are especially welcome

Thank you!!

Thank you for another successful Shred Day!

Two full truckloads of paper were safely shredded and recycled.

We love providing this service for our clients, friends and neighbors, but what we’re really excited about is how you all gave back to the community. Your donations provided 534 pounds of food and $1,129 to benefit Concern for Neighbors food bank. Thank you!

Posted on May 6, 2019 at 11:41 am
Andrea Wetzel | Category: Newsletter

Monthly Newsletter – January 2019

2019 Economic & Housing Forecast

 

Happy 2019! As we head into the New Year, it’s a great time to look ahead to what the real estate market has in store. Just last week, I had the pleasure of hosting an Economic Forecast Event with Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, and soaked up his knowledge and predictions. Below are his general predictions for the at-large real estate market across the nation. Please review and let me know if you have any questions.

Beyond the national forecast, at the event Matthew reported specifically on the Greater Seattle market, including both King and Snohomish counties. I received his Power Point presentation and I am happy to share his slides, should you request them.

A few take-a-ways to note are:

  • Seattle remains strong economically and our job market is thriving.
  • Interest rates are still historically low and will rise, but not beyond 6%.
  • It is still a seller’s market in our area, but price escalations are softening, creating more balance and sustainability. We are NOT experiencing a bubble.
  • 25% of homeowners in our region have 50% equity in their homes.
  • An economic recession is upon us in 2020. This one should be much like the 1991 recession; short and not based in housing.
  • Be careful how you process the media’s take on the market as they often use extreme month-over-month numbers vs. richer long-term data.
  • Prices are expected to rise 5-7% in 2019, which is more normal, but above the long-term average, yet lower than the recent double-digit year-over-year gains we’ve seen since 2012.

 

It is always my goal to help empower my clients with information to help them make informed decisions regarding their real estate.  Let me know if you’d like that Power Point. I’m happy to share and help you dissect the information. Here’s to a great 2019!

 

2019 Economic and Housing Forecast

Posted on Windermere.com in Market News by Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate

What a year it has been for both the U.S. economy and the national housing market. After several years of above-average economic and home price growth, 2018 marked the start of a slowdown in the residential real estate market. As the year comes to a close, it’s time for me to dust off my crystal ball to see what we can expect in 2019.

 

The U.S. Economy

 

Despite the turbulence that the ongoing trade wars with China are causing, I still expect the U.S. economy to have one more year of relatively solid growth before we likely enter a recession in 2020. Yes, it’s the dreaded “R” word, but before you panic, there are some things to bear in mind.

Firstly, any cyclical downturn will not be driven by housing.  Although it is almost impossible to predict exactly what will be the “straw that breaks the camel’s back”, I believe it will likely be caused by one of the following three things: an ongoing trade war, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too quickly, or excessive corporate debt levels. That said, we still have another year of solid growth ahead of us, so I think it’s more important to focus on 2019 for now.

 

The U.S. Housing Market

 

Existing Home Sales
This paper is being written well before the year-end numbers come out, but I expect 2018 home sales will be about 3.5% lower than the prior year. Sales started to slow last spring as we breached affordability limits and more homes came on the market.  In 2019, I anticipate that home sales will rebound modestly and rise by 1.9% to a little over 5.4 million units.

 

Existing Home Prices
We will likely end 2018 with a median home price of about $260,000 – up 5.4% from 2017.  In 2019 I expect prices to continue rising, but at a slower rate as we move toward a more balanced housing market. I’m forecasting the median home price to increase by 4.4% as rising mortgage rates continue to act as a headwind to home price growth.

 

New Home Sales
In a somewhat similar manner to existing home sales, new home sales started to slow in the spring of 2018, but the overall trend has been positive since 2011. I expect that to continue in 2019 with sales increasing by 6.9% to 695,000 units – the highest level seen since 2007.

 

That being said, the level of new construction remains well below the long-term average. Builders continue to struggle with land, labor, and material costs, and this is an issue that is not likely to be solved in 2019. Furthermore, these constraints are forcing developers to primarily build higher-priced homes, which does little to meet the substantial demand by first-time buyers.

 

Mortgage Rates
In last year’s forecast, I suggested that 5% interest rates would be a 2019 story, not a 2018 story. This prediction has proven accurate with the average 30-year conforming rates measured at 4.87% in November, and highly unlikely to breach the 5% barrier before the end of the year.

 

In 2019, I expect interest rates to continue trending higher, but we may see periods of modest contraction or levelling.  We will likely end the year with the 30-year fixed rate at around 5.7%, which means that 6% interest rates are more apt to be a 2020 story.

 

I also believe that non-conforming (or jumbo) rates will remain remarkably competitive. Banks appear to be comfortable with the risk and ultimately, the return, that this product offers, so expect jumbo loan yields to track conforming loans quite closely.

 

Conclusions
There are still voices out there that seem to suggest the housing market is headed for calamity and that another housing bubble is forming, or in some cases, is already deflating.  In all the data that I review, I just don’t see this happening. Credit quality for new mortgage holders remains very high and the median down payment (as a percentage of home price) is at its highest level since 2004.

 

That is not to say that there aren’t several markets around the country that are overpriced, but just because a market is overvalued, does not mean that a bubble is in place. It simply means that forward price growth in these markets will be lower to allow income levels to rise sufficiently.

 

Finally, if there is a big story for 2019, I believe it will be the ongoing resurgence of first-time buyers. While these buyers face challenges regarding student debt and the ability to save for a down payment, they are definitely on the comeback and likely to purchase more homes next year than any other buyer demographic.

 

Originally published on Inman News.

 

At Windermere we help people buy and sell homes, but we also help build community. I’m proud to support the Windermere Foundation with every home I help sell or buy. 2018 concluded with another great year of fundraising and giving for the Windermere Foundation, thanks to the continued support of agents, franchise owners, staff, and the community. Nearly $2.5 million was raised in 2018, bringing our grand total to over $38 million raised since the Foundation’s inception in 1989! This money goes right back into our community, helping low-income and homeless families. Read the full blog post here.

 

This past Christmas, my office adopted 22 foster boys, ranging in age from 13-18 years old, and living in group homes managed by Pioneer Human Services. These group homes serve boys who are struggling with emotional, behavioral and/or psychiatric problems that prevent placement in a traditional foster care setting. We purchased gifts, using wish lists from the boys, to help provide a joyful Christmas morning for these teenage boys who might otherwise be overlooked.

The office also raised money for grocery gift cards for families in need (also referred by Pioneer Human Services). This year we distributed $2,068 in grocery gift cards to 15 local families.

We are also thrilled to report that through our partnership with the Seattle Seahawks, this season Windermere raised a total of $31,900 for YouthCare, an organization that provides critical services for homeless youth. This brings our three-year total to $98,700 towards our #tacklehomelessness campaign! Thank you to the Seahawks and to YouthCare for helping us support homeless youth in our community. We’ll be back next year to raise even more!

Posted on February 5, 2019 at 6:13 pm
Andrea Wetzel | Category: Community Information, Newsletter

Monthly Newsletter

With a healthy increase in inventory since May, the need for buyers to have all their down payment funds immediately available, and a willingness to make offers with no contingencies has passed in most cases. It has been quite a relief, and is providing opportunities for many folks that have wanted to cash in on their well-developed equity levels, and either move up to a bigger home or down size (right size) to a home that better fits their current lifestyle.

For the first time in years we are starting to see an increase in contingent offers that are turning into pending transactions. A contingent sale is one where a buyer makes an offer to purchase their next home contingent on the sale of their current home. In some cases, the buyer’s current home may be already on the market, or in other cases they still need to launch their home to the market. Many buyers in this situation wait to find a home/seller that is willing to accept their contingent offer, and then they immediately launch their home onto the market.

The goal is a sale within 30-45 days, which will then provide the buyer with their down payment funds, and then close both properties within days of each other, making a smooth transition from one house to the next. We have not seen inventory levels the way they are now since late 2014, so the opportunity for successfully executing a contingent offer has not been an option for 4 years! It is a great time to seize this opportunity. With that said, let’s look at some statistics which highlight some of the gains there are to be had.

First and foremost, let’s look at year-over-year price appreciation. Over the last 12 months, we have seen an 11% increase in prices in both King and Snohomish Counties. Last year, the year-over-year price appreciation was 14% for both counties. This illustrates that price appreciation is slowing, or softening, if you will, due to the increase in inventory levels. This is a welcome trend as we move away from unsustainable appreciation levels, which is helping to stabilize affordability. Bear in mind that a historically-normal appreciation rate is 3-5%, so we are still a ways away from reaching that baseline.

The current market environment for both counties is still a seller’s market, sitting at 2.6 months of inventory based on pending sales for King, and 2.3 for Snohomish. A balanced market is representative of 3-6 months on inventory; we are currently just under that, but well above the extreme 0.5-0.8 months that we experienced over the last year or so. This has created more selection, which has minimized multiple offers and given buyers the opportunity to write offers with more comfortable terms, such as a home sale contingency.

Lastly, let’s talk interest rates! Currently, they are hovering around 5%. Yes, this is up from the 4.5% we saw earlier this year, but still well below the 30-year historical average of 6.7%. Money is still relatively cheap to borrow, and this should be taken advantage of as experts predict interest rates to rise as we head into 2019 and beyond. Your interest rate is typically fixed for the life of your loan, so rate plays into the long-term savings you can have on your asset if locked in at today’s levels.

If you have thought about making a move to a home that is a better fit for your current lifestyle, but have been stalled because you weren’t sure how to do it, now is the time to consider your options. Please reach out if you’d like a review of the current market conditions and how they relate to your goals. It is my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

 

Choosing a color palette for your home can be a complex process. Whether you are refreshing the interior or exterior, identifying colors that you relate to and that are on trend can be a challenge. Check out this article from House Beautiful on the most popular color palettes for 2019 based on your color personality. I think there is a lot of fun to be had here, and remember – a couple coats of paint can be the most inexpensive way to refresh your home. If you need a painter or any other contractor, remember that I can be a resource, as I have a preferred contractors list that I can pull from.

 

#TackleHomelessness
Every play matters in the fight against homelessness! Congratulations to the Seattle Seahawks for helping us raise $4,600 to #TackleHomelessness in their last home game against Los Angeles. That brings our season total to $9,200 and our cumulative money raised to $76,000! Good luck to the Hawks this weekend against the Chargers!

Posted on November 3, 2018 at 9:25 pm
Andrea Wetzel | Category: Newsletter

Monthly Newsletter

With the sharpest increase of available homes for sale in years, more opportunities are now available for buyers, including first-timers. Many first-time home buyers have sat on the sidelines and remained renters due to the constriction of inventory, which put major pressure on price affordability. Not only has affordability been an issue, but the terms required to prevail in a multiple-offer situation were often not within reach for someone entering the market for the first time.

For example, over the last 12 months in the Seattle Metro area we have seen a 66% increase in the selection of homes for buyers to choose from. There is currently 1.8 months of available inventory based on pending sales versus 0.8 months that was available the same month last year. This is still a seller’s market (0-3 months), but it is providing more than twice as much selection than a year ago. This loosening up of the market has helped to temper price growth by reducing the amount of price escalations and the need to have super aggressive financing terms in order to secure a home.

You see, over the last 3-4 years we have experienced double-digit price appreciation (10-14%) year-over-year, each year. A normal rate of appreciation is 3-5%. Minimal amounts of available inventory, low interest rates, and rapid job growth lead to this increase in prices. Now that more homes are coming to market and job growth has stabilized a bit (still growing, but not as fast), price growth has slowed. This is good news for sustainability and affordability. Here’s the deal though – we are still experiencing growth in values, making home ownership a sound investment over renting.

According to the most recent survey from rentcafe.com, the average rent for an apartment in Seattle is $1,906 with an average square footage of 736 sq. ft. That is quite a bit of money for not a ton of space. Further, that monthly expenditure does not create any wealth for the renter, only for the landlord. With renting, rates can be increased at any time, and you are paying down someone else’s asset, not your own. Also, owning gives the homeowner control of their overhead, while getting to make their house their home by adding improvements such as painting.

There are several factors to consider that will lead a person to make the best decision for their lifestyle and their financial bottom line. One of the biggest factors is interest rates! Currently, the rate for a 30-year fixed, conventional, conforming loan is hovering around 4.88%. Up from earlier this year and predicted to rise, but still historically low over the course of the last 30 years. These rates need to be considered the greatest opportunity of them all! With prices tempering and rates still under the 30-year average of 6.65%, buyers are able to secure a sound investment with very low debt service.

With interest rates predicted to rise over the next year, a good rule of thumb to remember is that for every one-point increase in rate, a buyer loses 10% of their buying power. For example, if the rate jumps from 4.75% to 5.75% and one wants to keep the same monthly payment, they must adjust their price point down by 10%. So, a $450,000 budget becomes a $405,000 budget, and that isn’t taking appreciation into consideration. If you assume an average appreciation rate of 4% year-over-year, today’s $450,000 house will be $468,000 next year. What side of the equity growth do you want to be on? As an owner now, or a buyer a year from now, when prices are higher and interest rates are most likely higher as well?

Once you secure a mortgage, the payment stays the same over the term of the entire loan. The long-term benefits of owning are abundant, including the stability of not being asked to move. These are important factors to consider for everyone, but especially millennials, who are enjoying the benefits of Seattle’s attractive job market. One myth to address is the common belief that you must have a 20% down payment in order to buy a home. That is simply not true. There are loan programs as low as 3% down, decreasing the need to have a large sum of money saved up before being able to buy.

Where folks are having to compromise the most due to affordability is commute times, and settling in less-urban neighborhoods. Worth pointing out, is the average home price in south Snohomish County is 34% less than Seattle Metro – that is a huge savings! Further, south King County is 74% more affordable than Seattle. Some people, mainly millennials, have not been willing to give up living in the core urban neighborhoods that have high walk scores and shorter commute times. That should be apt to change with more selection available in the purchase market, coupled with low interest rates. The advantages of moving out a little further and securing a home will start people on the track of building long-term wealth. If you or anyone you know is currently renting and is considering a change, please let me know, as I would be happy to get their questions answered and help them make an informed decision.

 

 

Don’t Wait for a Disaster to Build Your Emergency Kit

Two Weeks Ready: Be Prepared. Build Kits. Help Each Other.

The first few days after a disaster are often the most critical. Government and essential services may not be available right away, depending on the circumstances. It is imperative to have a plan in place for such a time, and be ready to act on your own.

Washington’s biggest disaster threat is from earthquakes. Washington State’s Emergency Management Division advises that we take precautions to be on our own for at least 2 weeks. Take a look at their Two Week Ready Brochure (PDF) that outlines the basics necessary for your emergency kit. While it is important to get ready, don’t feel like you have to do it all at once. The list of necessities is long, so take a look at the agency’s year-long prep plan. You will also find information on pet preparedness, as well as the agency’s Drop, Cover, and Hold Earthquake Scenario map.

 

#TackleHomelessness Update

During last weekend’s win against Dallas, the Seattle Seahawks had 46 defensive tackles, raising another $4,600 for Windermere’s #TackleHomelessness campaign. Combined with what we’ve raised over the past two seasons, this brings our to-date grand total to $71,400! All season long we’ll be partnering with the Seahawks to raise money for YouthCare in support of homeless youth.

Posted on September 29, 2018 at 8:43 pm
Andrea Wetzel | Category: Newsletter

Monthly Newsletter

Keeping Price Growth in Perspective,
Opportunities Abound for Both Buyers and Sellers

 

“How’s the Market?” is a question I am asked all the time. It is a common segue in casual conversation over the neighbor’s fence, at a cocktail party or family gathering. Now more than ever, the answer to this question is critical, yet fascinating. You see, our market is experiencing a long-awaited correction, a tempering of price appreciation. This is providing great opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

For so long, inventory has been so limited that prices have had nowhere else to go but up, and up fast! In May, we saw the largest jump in new listings in a decade, which created a slowdown in month-over-month price appreciation. This was especially exacerbated due to the scarcity of inventory in the first quarter of the year when many jobs were being filled by big companies in the area, skyrocketing demand. The graphs above illustrate the price growth in both King and Snohomish Counties. If you average out the last 12 months and compare to the previous 12 months, prices are up 14% in King County and 13% in Snohomish County. Due to a large increase in inventory and other factors, we have seen prices start to balance out since May.

Additional factors that play into this healthy adjustment on the run-up of prices are interest rates, affordability, and Seattle summertime. First, interest rates have been dancing. They have climbed over a half a point from a year ago, which has been coupled with double-digit price growth, forcing many buyers to take a step back. Bear in mind that interest rates are still under 5% and well below the 30-year average of 6.61%. This must be taken to heart!

Affordability has been a huge factor that played into the reduction of absorption rate once the increase in new listings hit this Spring. This was especially true in King County. Prices peaked so far this year at $725,000 in April, whereas they peaked in Snohomish County at $510,000 in June. This is simple supply and demand, as buyers have had more selection. Further, many buyers turned their heads north to find a more affordable option while still sustaining a manageable commute.

The bottom line is that it just got too expensive for some to make King County their home, even Snohomish County for that matter. Combine that with an influx of selection, and you find the top of the market so far in 2018. This is not a bad thing! We must keep the double-digit, year-over-year price appreciation in perspective, and trust that the market factors which led to prices balancing out are healthy. A typical appreciation rate is 3-5%. Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist, predicts that we will finish out 2018 with 7-8% appreciation over 2017, which is well above the norm of 3-5%. Sustainable growth is important to the overall health of our economy and culture; this provides opportunity.

Buyers take heed. As we come out of the Seattle summertime seasonal slowdown, we anticipate a little run on new listings in September and October. Note on the graph above that we seasonally see prices peak in the late spring and early summer, due to many folks taking time to enjoy the summer months traveling and relaxing a bit. If you have been a sidelined buyer or have been thinking about making a move, the remainder of 2018 may be your time to enjoy more selection, still-low interest rates, and the chance to secure the best home for your lifestyle.

Interest rates are still attractive (historically attractive) and are predicted to rise. Plus, selection has increased, making negotiations not as intense. Multiple offers are not always the norm these days, which provides some breathing room for luxuries like inspections and relying on the bank’s appraisal to confirm value. Also, if you are a buyer that needs to sell a home first in order to purchase, this environment is much more forgiving. Believe it or not, we have even started to see contingent offers make a comeback.

This was one reason why we saw such a limit on inventory, because folks were not able to make fluid moves, so they just uncomfortably stayed put. It was the many baby boomers who came to market this spring and summer who relocated out of the area that loosened this up, paving the way for the local first-time, move-up, or move-down buyer to have some opportunity to transition.

So what does all this mean for potential sellers? Well, a lot! The word of the day is perspective. You must keep a close connection to the double-digit, year-over-year price appreciation we have seen over the last three years, and come to terms with today’s balancing out. Great equity gains are behind every homeowner who has owned their home since 2012. If that equity has been cared for, there are large profits to turn, even though you might not get multiple offers. All it takes is one good buyer for a successful sale!

It is all about what is motivating you. If a move seems interesting or imminent, chances are you can take that equity and turn it into something that better matches your current lifestyle. This is where a detailed assessment of the features of your home, along with an analysis of market conditions can be developed into a winning strategy. This does not come easy and requires in-depth research, close attention to condition and comparable homes, and outstanding marketing and merchandising.

Where I have seen the most opportunity is when sellers partner up and listen to the professional assessment of all of these factors. It often leads to satisfying results with one buyer, or believe it or not, the occasional multiple offer. Our market is exciting, but it takes skill to set level expectations, which leads to positive results.

If you or someone you know is curious about “How’s the Market?”, please reach out. Education and explanation are key to awareness, which leads to clarity. I love what I do and look forward to the opportunity to serve during this changing time. It is my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

 

 

We are so fortunate here at Windermere to have Matthew Gardner help keep us informed on our economy and the real estate market. Each quarter Matthew compiles in-depth research on counties from across Western Washington. Click here to download Matthew’s full Q2 report.

 

 

Summer is quickly coming to a close, and it’s time to think about prepping your yard for fall.  Here are a few quick tips to get you started, and a full article here.

Fertilizing

All summer long, plants and grass are using up nutrients in the soil. After months of growing, your soil’s reserves become depleted, which is why a fall fertilizer is great to restore nutrients and give your grass, shrubs, and perennials a boost to help them make it through winter. It is recommended to fertilize once every season.

Stop Pruning and Watering

Late summer and fall might seem like a good time to prune dead flowers and branches, but several experts recommend waiting until spring to prune anything. Pruning stimulates new growth, but with the frost coming, chances are this new growth won’t survive. Pruning also interferes with the plant when it is going dormant.

In late September, you should also stop watering your plants to help them go dormant as well.

Furnace Filter

Okay, this isn’t really a yard tip but it’s still important, and after all this smoke – critical! It’s recommended that you change your furnace filter at least every three months, if not more often. Having a clean furnace filter will make the air circulating through your house cleaner, and will put less stress on your heating and air systems.

Posted on September 3, 2018 at 12:20 am
Andrea Wetzel | Category: Newsletter